Qatar Prix Du Moulin De Longchamp Stakes – Group 1 (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Advice: 1 pt win Night of Thunder (9/2 general), 2 pts win Night of Thunder w/o Toronado (2/1 Bet Victor)
Toronado: One of the leading milers of last season, winning the Sussex Stakes to end a long running duel with Dawn Approach, and after a step up in trip didn’t work out, reapperaced with fine win in Queen Anne; Beaten by Kingman in Sussex Stakes but that effort reads really well and should take the beating today.
Grand Vintage: Can’t see him getting involved in this company.
Mogadishio: Another who looks out of his depth at this level here and impossible to give a serious chance to.
Sommerabend: A seven year old but a classy one at that, having won twice at Saint-Cloud in Group 3 and 2 company at the beginning of this season before smart efforts over 7 furlongs here; Ground may have been of no use to her when seven in the Maurice De Gheest.
Estoerique: Very classy at her best as French Guineas second last year indicates, and recovered from fairly disappointing loss of form to win Dahilia Stakes and after disappointing at Royal Ascot, but best suited by the sprint finish that the Rotschild turned into latest; Needs to find her very best to be a player here.
Charm Spirit: Uber solid colt who was third in the Jean Luc last year and won the Dejbel before fine Guineas fifth at Newmarket; Since won Prix Jean Prat and can be expected to make a bold bid once again today although seems held fair and square by Night of Thunder.
Decathlete: Drop back to 6 furlongs didn’t suit at all after being very impressive on return – previously a second to Karakontie at the backend of last season – so this mile wills suit better but on all evidence still has something to find so while a bold showing is no surprise.
Master Carpenter: Admirable sort who has plenty of very smart form including his third at Maisons Laffite last time and hold plenty of speed too; Early form when behind Kingman stands up well but underlines the task that he has on his hands today.
Night of Thunder: Disappointed in the Eclipse but his jockey was one of many on an off day and best to remember his fine effort when winning extremely strong 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket in fine style or his second in the St James’s Palace Stakes afterwards when Kingman reverse the form but he was still a good second and big run expected here.
Bawina: tremendous run in the French Guineas not backed up with similar effort in the Diane but since won well over a mile twice and foolish to ignore her chances here.
VERDICT: Toronado is an understandably strong favourite here but there is no reason that he should be more than half the price of NIGHT OF THUNDER, who looks to be a miler pure and simple and has a fantastic chance on this season’s form. Unsuited by the trip and the way the Eclipse developed last time, this can see him return to form, and he can beat off other 3yos in Bawina and Charm Sprit to give the stable a 1-2. Decathlete is unexposed and interesting and makes more appeal as an outsider than Estoterique.